He found only seven states where the anti-abortion measure would pass and estimated the popular vote nationally would be 65% against such a measure.Ībortion opponents were shocked this week, having assumed that Kansas would be a great place to start the state-by-state struggle over abortion rights that the Supreme Court has set in motion. The New York Times' Nate Cohn produced a formula of polls and voting data to estimate how all 50 states would vote if faced with a similar ballot measure. That data point begs the question of how other Trump states or "red states" might respond to the Supreme Court's latest abortion ruling when it comes to elections this fall. In a strong signal with national implications, the anti-abortion vote lagged the vote for former President Trump in the state by 15 points. Unaffiliated voters who had nothing else to vote on in the primary came out to vote on the abortion measure – and turn thumbs down. Turnout was nearly double what it had been for the last comparable primary and nearly equal to the November 2018 midterm election. In Kansas, a special referendum to override the state constitution and empower the legislature to enact new abortion restrictions was rejected. They have also produced between them four of the Republican nominees for president, including three since 1964, a remarkable record given their populations.īut this past week showed surprises can happen where you least expect them. Prior to 2020 these states had each voted Democratic for president only once in 70 years. Their political histories are deeply entwined with national Republican politics. It's at least worth taking a second look at Kansas and Arizona, which we all knew were among the most conservative places in the country, steeped in the voting proclivities of the West and its agriculture-and-extraction economies. 2 as the proposed Kansas constitutional amendment removing the right to an abortion fails.Įveryone who knows anything about politics knows something about Kansas and Arizona - or thinks they do.īut things we all know for sure can turn out to be wrong. Abortion rights supporters cheer in Overland Park, Kansas, on Aug.
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